Jay Cutler
There are three knowns with the Chicago Bears quarterback
situation. Cutler has always been a top- tier quarterback in terms of talent. Every
year, the final numbers do not match the talent this guy has. And every year,
someone is predicting a breakout year for this guy, from bringing in offensive
guru Mike Martz, to getting rid of Mike Martz, to improved offensive line play,
to new weapons and receivers with past history with him. So why are we
recommending him to you once again? For one thing, this is the year where the
hype has finally gone cold, and there is something to be said for post- hype
potential. Yahoo! ranks Cutler as their 22nd best QB, behind the
likes of Michael Vick, Phillip Rivers, and Carson Palmer. If the Bears 28th
ranked offense can’t improve this year to be somewhat better than the Cardinals
and Chargers offenses, then I’ll hand over my fantasy championship bobbleheads
right now. Secondly, Cutler gets to throw against the very penetrable
secondaries of the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions
twice a year each, so he won’t be facing difficult competition. Thirdly, the
additions of first- round pick Kyle Long and free- agent signing Jermon
Bushrod, as well as TE Martellus Bennett, should upgrade an offensive line that
has given up 148 sacks over the past four seasons. And lastly, the Bears
finally scrapped all familiarity and grabbed CFL coach Marc Trestman, a guy
regarded amongst the league as brilliant but lacking in people skills,
something that will fit Cutler just fine. Here is a link to a great article
describing the impact Trestman should have on Cutler, but the gist of it is
that if Trestman’s had tutored Cutler last year, his stats would have looked
more like: 3,288 yds, 31:14 TD:INT ratio, and a 63.6% completion percentage.
Those stats would have ranked Cutler as the 12th ranked fantasy QB,
which is a low- end QB1 in standard leagues. Take the discount and enjoy.
Matt Forte & Michael Bush
Forte finished up last season as the 12th ranked
fantasy running back, and that’s right about where he should be drafted in
fantasy circles. Coming off of a disappointing season in which he averaged only
4.4 YPC, new coach Marc Trestman’s West Coast scheme should revive Forte’s
flagging running skills. Health is also a risk with Forte, having missed 6
games over the past 2 seasons. 1000 yard season isn’t out of the question. Trestman
has talked up Forte’s ability to catch passes, but I want to take a wait- and-
see approach with that. With the addition of Martellus Bennett, the emergence
of Alshon Jeffery, and Brandon Marshall commanding his usual amount of targets,
there may not be enough targets to go around, and Forte could be the odd man
out. That said, it will be a boon to his fantasy value if he gets back to his
career mark of 54 receptions per season. Bush is here as the handcuff and goal-
line back; an acceptable RB4 who can score and play well when Forte inevitably
gets injured. Just don’t expect anything more and you’ll be quite pleased.
Brandon Marshall & Alshon Jeffery
Marshall finished 2nd in fantasy wideout
production, catching 1118 passes for 1508 yards and 11 TDs. Granted, with a
whopping 188 targets, that kind of production comes as no surprise. Cutler
loves throwing to Marshall, even from back in their Denver days, and under new
head coach Marc Trestman Marshall should have no problem matching or even
eclipsing that mark. The price will be high, but I’m buying on Marshall this
year. Things get more difficult from here. Rookie Alshon Jeffery did a lot of
things wrong last year, from running the wrong route to bad hands and bad
chemistry with Jay Cutler. If anything, Jeffery is a deep threat, something
that won’t jive well with Trestman’s quick- hitting West Coast scheme. Hold in
dynasty leagues, but he’s nothing more than a WR4 in redraft leagues.
Martellus Bennett
Bennett finally broke out last year with the Giants,
catching 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 TDs. The immensely talented TE now takes
his talents to Chicago, where he’ll be the primary seam stretcher and an extra
blocker in Marc Trestman’s West Coast scheme. Fortunately for Bennett, Trestman
has a ridiculous pass/run ratio inside the red zone, and Bennett is the biggest
red zone threat on the team. Unfortunately for Bennett, TE has not been a place
of thriving productivity in Chicago, and Trestman has not been known to utilize
his tight ends very well, though to be fair that was in the early 2000’s. As a
seam stretcher, Bennett could have value similar to Vernon Davis’ role in San
Francisco, or he could be Jared Cook 2.0, as a talented TE underutilized due to
his team’s poor pass protection. I’m betting Trestman will be forced to go with
the latter, but he still projects as a TE2 with upside for mixed leaguers.
Robbie Gould
Despite being one of the more accurate kicker’s in the
league, Gould has consistently finished low in the rankings due to never having
kicked more than 28 field goals since 2007. While we at Fantasy Sparks are
predicting a breakout from the Bears offense, it will not be enough to make
Gould fantasy relevant. Avoid.
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