Fantasy Analysis: Baltimore Ravens

Welcome back football audience. Brandon here, today we will continue our fantasy trek through the AFC North. We’ll be looking at the defending Super Bowl champs, the Baltimore Ravens. As we all know they had many key offseason losses but that’s not what we’re here to talk about. We are going to talk about fantasy, so let’s begin.

Joe Flacco: Time to bring the Super Bowl MVP under the fantasy microscope. While Flacco exploded in the postseason, he did not play as well in the regular season. Flacco didn’t even crack 4,000 passing yards and passed only for 22 TDs. Additionally, he threw 10 INTs and fumbled 9 times. Now if Flacco can play in 2013 like he did in the playoffs then he will be a good fantasy option. But without his top receiver in Anquan Boldin, it is uncertain which Flacco we will see. We likely won’t know until preseason. There are plenty of better fantasy options but he is a solid backup.

Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce: Ray Rice is a top fantasy RB. Fact. He’s Flacco’s favorite target. Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration, and I do mean slight. In addition to his 257 rushing attempts, Rice accounted for 61 receptions which was tied for second with Dennis Pitta, and only 4 less the leading receiver Boldin. With the loss of Boldin and no real replacement for him the reliance on Rice will only increase. Also worth noting is that Bernard Pierce started coming on at the end of the last season and throughout the postseason, so he may take away some carries but Pierce lacks the pass catching ability that Rice has. So while Pierce may be getting some more carries, he will not take away from Rice’s value.

Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith: With Boldin gone, these two are next in line to be the starters. Smith is known for his ability to stretch the field and Flacco, if nothing else, can throw the ball deep. Last season Smith caught 49 balls for 855 yards, and this season he will likely eclipse 1,000 yards. Smith’s value will go up, the question is whether he will rise to the occasion. Jacoby Jones on the other hand, was the third receiver while Boldin was still around which worked out considering Jones also doubles as the return man. So whether or not he will maintain that role or step up into the second receiver position is unknown. Smith will be worth drafting at the back end of the early rounds but Jones not so much; he might be worth a late round pick.

Dennis Pitta: As I mentioned before Pitta tied with Rice for the second most receptions on the team. Pitta also was second in receiving TDs with 7 behind only Torrey Smith’s 8. Pitta is sitting on the edge of being a part of the top-tier TE. Another solid season and he well put himself in that category. He’s worth having on your team.

Justin Tucker: Tucker enjoyed a successful rookie campaign. He connected 30 of 33 FGs, and made all 42 PATs he attempted. I don’t know if the sophomore slump applies to kickers but I expect Tucker will continue to be reliable.

And that’s my analysis of the Baltimore Ravens. Leave comments below if you have any. Until next time, best wishes.

Fantasy Analysis: Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan

QB is ridiculously deep this year for fantasy purposes. It’s why a guy like Matt Ryan can throw for 4719 Yds and a 32:14 TD:INT ratio and still rank in at only the 7^th best at his position. However, outside of one Week 11 disaster at Arizona that hurt his fantasy stock, Ryan would have finished as the No. 5 QB for fantasy, ahead of Peyton Manning and RGIII. With two Top- 10 wide receivers, as well as the ageless Tony Gonzalez, Ryan should have no problem replicating the numbers he put up last year. The question is, will it be enough to warrant a high selection?

Steven Jackson & Jacquizz Rodgers

You can find plenty of positive spins on the potential of this guy to break out for the Atlanta Falcons. He’s leaving the desolate Rams to come to one of the top 5 most explosive offenses in the NFL, will have plenty of room to run, and can catch passes on top of that. And that’s great. But if you came here for an endorsement for Jackson as your first round pick, look elsewhere. Jackson just turned 30, the age where most running backs hit a cliff in their production, and has enough mileage on him to make Michael Turner look like a fresh Mercedes. To expand on that point, over the past 5 years Michael Turner has averaged 283 carries a year. In the same time span, Jackson has averaged 285 carries a year, and has 3 more full seasons of carrying the ball. However, since the Atlanta brass is certain to have a bit more faith in Jackson than they did in Michael Turner, it could spell the end of fantasy relevance for Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta’s passing down receiver last year. Rodgers did a fine job last year, catching 53 passes, but Steven Jackson has averaged 45 over his career in St. Louis, and the Atlanta brass may prefer to leave Jackson in on passing downs. That said, this is a situation to monitor in preseason play. Jackson should have middle to low 2^nd round value, though he will undoubtedly be drafted higher than that, while Rodgers will have no value unless he can carve himself a role in the passing downs.

Julio Jones & Roddy White

Need I have to put an explanation here? Jones finished as the 9^th best wide receiver for fantasy purposes in 2012, catching 79 passes for 1198 yards and 10 TDs. He is also entering his 3^rd year in the league, a time when many receivers post their best season. White finished 10^th in fantasy scoring, has 6 straight seasons of 1000+ yards per season, and is clearly Matt Ryan’s favorite target. Go get them, gamers.

Tony Gonzalez

The ageless wonder is entering his 15^th season in the league as a dominant pass- catching tight end. He finished as the 3^rd best tight end for fantasy last year, despite his age, and there is no reason to believe he will be slowing down any time soon. Many will be steered and by his age and fear of an impending drop- off; don’t be one of those people. “Gonzo” is one of the most physically gifted tight ends in history, and keeps himself in near perfect condition. Draft him and enjoy the solid production.

Matt Bryant

Bryant connected on 33 field goals and 44 XP last season, and has been one of the most consistent kicker’s in the league. Bryant doesn’t have a strong leg, but is near automatic from within 40, and Atlanta’s offense will give him plenty of chances this season. Draft and

Fantasy Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals

Welcome back football audience. Yesterday you saw John post his fantasy analysis of the Arizona Cardinals projected offensive starters (it is still May, we are only assuming who the starters will be). You also may have noticed he didn’t really talk about the defense, not to worry we will talk about defenses at a later time. With John being the NFC guy, I’ll be handling the AFC. So I’ll be starting my fantasy analysis in the AFC North with the Cincinnati Bengals. So without further ado:

Andy Dalton: In his second year, Dalton showed improvement in nearly every statistical category. He went from 20 passing TDs to 27 which was tied for 7^th in the league. He also got 4 rushing TDs using his underrated athleticism. He only accounted for 20 turnovers which isn’t too shabby. I expect Dalton to improve and I think he’ll do well leading the Bengals but he’ll probably go late in the second round maybe even the third depending on how deep your league is.

A.J. Green: If you’re like me then you drafted Green before it was cool. Well now it’s cool, and this guy is an absolute beast and is already a top 10 WR. He racked up 1,350 yards and 11 TDs on 97 receptions in his sophomore year and will be Dalton’s go-to-guy, despite the double teams he will draw. He is worthy of being the number 1 receiver on your fantasy team so expect him to go early.

Jermaine Gresham & Tyler Eifert: If you’re like John and me then you believe Gresham is quite talented but is under-utilized. And this trend may continue due to the drafting of Tyler Eifert, who many regarded as the best TE in the draft. Now this likely means that the Bengals will try to use the two TE formation. That or they want to replace Gresham, which I highly doubt considering he is only 24 and has performed well thus far. It’s too soon to say whether this will negatively or positively effect Gresham’s production. My prediction is that Gresham will draw more attention than Eifert early until Eifert finally comes on and warrants more attention. Gresham will likely go in the mid rounds but be wary of Eifert if you do draft him. Eifert on the other hand will likely go later, but as with Gresham be wary.

Andrew Hawkins: Hawkins is currently projected to start in the slot. While that could change, it likely won’t have any fantasy impact. Hawkins was 3^rd on the team in receiving yards with 533 and tied for 3^rd in receiving Tds with 4. But it’s being reported that Eifert has been lined up all over the field including in the slot, which will eat into Hawkins stats. Last year, Hawkins was a serviceable flex option this year he may not even be worthy of that. However, the rest of the Bengals receivers inspire little confidence so after Green and the two TEs look for Hawkins to be the next fantasy man up.

Mohamed Sanu: This is the only receiver that could steal Hawkins thunder. However injuries have prevented him for permanently uprooting Hawkins. When he finally saw the field he made the most of it racking up 154 and 4 TDs in only 5 games. But that’s the problem, it was only five games before he hurt his foot and was placed on IR. At best he’s a dark-horse player, and I mean very dark, you may never see him at all in relation to fantasy football.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis & Giovani Bernard: This is an interesting situation because there are no guarantees for either back. Green-Ellis has shown that he can be a 1,000 rusher twice in his 5 year career, however he doesn’t possess the breakaway speed and elusiveness that Bernard has. But there are questions if Bernard has the ability to be an every down back. So what may happen is that we’ll see a “Thunder and Lightning” approach with Green-Ellis getting more of the short yardage/goal line carries while Bernard gets more looks on first and second down. However, the Bengals may just let Green-Ellis get the bulk of the carries while the rookie learns behind him and then gradually give Bernard more carries. Or we may be looking at something of a split with the carries. This is a story worth watching through training camp. It could go either way.

Mike Nugent: He’s the kicker, there’s not a ton to say about him. He’s fairly reliable; he only missed 4 FGs in 12 games. If all the other elite kickers have been taken, he won’t disappoint you.

That's all for now. We'd like to hear your feedback. Do you agree, disagree, or think I'm way off. And please remember these are just predictions and not concrete truth. Until next time.

Best Wishes,

Brandon

Fantasy Analysis: Arizona Cardinals

Welcome! I’m the guy with my name on the blog (you know who I am), and have been playing fantasy football for 6 years. Check out our inaugural post if you haven’t, that will explain who we are and what we hope to accomplish. Now this is our first analysis post here at Fantasy Sparks, an analysis of the fantasy potential of the Arizona Cardinals. We’re not experts here, so let us know how we did! Please leave your comments down at the bottom!

Carson Palmer

After finishing as the 17^th ranked fantasy qb for the 2012- 2013 season, Palmer now steps into a seemingly better situation for fantasy purposes. Playing with the Oakland Raiders, Palmer threw for 4018 yards with a 22:14 TD:INT ratio. Palmer also managed to complete 61.1% of his passes, when his best wideout, Denarious Moore, only caught 44.7% of his targets. In Oakland, Palmer threw to the motley crew of Denarious Moore, Darius Heyward- Bey, Rod Streater, and Brandon Myers. In Arizona,  Palmer gets one of the league’s premier wide receivers, Larry Fitzgerald, and a group of up- and- coming talents, in slot man Andre Roberts, Michael Floyd, and tight end Rob Housler. Palmer figures to see plenty of opportunities in the desert, with new head coach Bruce Arians, a preacher of the forward pass, who helped Andrew Luck in his rise to stardom last year, and a defense that should ensure plenty of blowouts.

But it’s not all sun and roses for Palmer. The league’s least mobile quarterback, Palmer goes from the line that gave up the 5^th fewest sacks to Arizona, who are far and away the least talented in all of football. He also heads to perhaps the toughest division in football, where both the 49ers, Seahawks, ands Rams all ranked in the top 15 against the pass.

In short, the key to Palmer’s value this year will be his volume, not his efficiency. He’s shaping up to be a low- end Qb2 with some downside.

Rashard Mendenhall & Ryan Williams

Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams are players in two similar spots. Both Mendenhall and Williams are coming off of season- ending injuries. Both are considered injury prone. And both are competing for the Cardinals feature back role.

But that’s where the similarities end. Mendenhall is a power back who has already proven he can produce in Bruce Arians system (from back in their Pittsburgh days). The questions for Mendenhall, therefore, lie in his own recovery. If Mendenhall can prove he is healthy, he should have the upper track for the job. However, that is a big if.

Ryan Williams, however, is a shifty running back with breakaway speed. However, he has yet to stay healthy for an entire season. Neither has he really produced in the big leagues (he averaged only 2.8 YPC before his injury). He cannot be counted on for fantasy production.

One must remember Arizona’s awful offensive line. This is the same line that allowed its runners to gain only 3.1 YPC for the season, and management did nothing to address this need. Mendenhall is a back who relies on his blockers to get what’s there; his value took a serious hit when he signed with Arizona. Williams, on the other hand, is less reliant on his blockers, one thing that may give him an advantage.

Though, no matter how you put it, neither back is a good bet for fantasy production outside of deep leagues. Mendenhall, in my opinion, is a slightly better bet for production, given his past history of performance and knowledge of Arians’ system, but will be hindered by a junior- league offensive line facing two staunch run defenses in his own division. Williams, on the other hand, can be safely ignored in all but the largest of leagues.

Larry Fitzgerald

If you like post- hype sleepers, then Fitzgerald is your man. The man is a complete beast. Entering his 10^th season, he is already the franchise’s leading receiver, with most of his yards coming from average or worse passing play. He suffered through his worst season as a pro, with a career low in TDs, the second worst career total for yards, and third worst season in catches. However, that was the case of shoddy QB play and an extreme frustration at the lack of commitment from management to get him a capable battery mate. He can’t help but being better this year, with Carson Palmer, a former All- Pro, under center. If any in your fantasy league are scared off by his lack of production, pounce.

Andre Roberts, Fitz’s opposite, actually outpaced him last year in standard fantasy points, 108 to 103. Each year, he has increased his receptions, yards, and touchdowns, and he has learned to produce with even mediocre quarterback play. To add to his increasing value, Arians will be moving to the slot. Palmer has been shown to favor his slot receivers, with T.J. Houshmanzadeh from 2004-2008, and with Brandon Myers last year, for an average of 86 receptions a year. This may be the last chance to draft Roberts for less than full price.

Arizona’s 2012 first round pick, Michael Floyd, will also compete for playing spots. After starting the season slowly, Floyd picked up his game at the second half of the season, ending on an 8- catch 166- yard effort against the 49ers in Week 17. A big, physical presence, Floyd has been running with Arians first team in practice, and his value can only increase under the tutelage of passing guru Arians.

Rob Housler

Housler is a nightmare for opposing defenses. 6’5 with 4.5 speed, Housler failed to crack the starting roster under ex- Coach Ken Wisenhunt, until late last season. From Week 7 till his season- ending injury in Week 15 last season, Housler averaged 4 catches and 36 YPG. Extrapolated over a 16- game season, that’s a 64- catch 576- yard season, which would have made him the 29^th ranked tight end last season. Not entirely impressive, but Arians has been raving about Housler in camp, and I expect Housler to finish with solid TE2 numbers next season.

Jay Feely

Feely finished 23^rd in NFL scoring last season, converting 25 of his 28 field goals and all of his extra point attempts. Feely has been a solid kicker in his own right for Arizona, but his team’s lack of ability to score has provided him with few opportunities to score. While Arizona’s offense should be improved, it is doubtful it will be enough to make Feely fantasy relevant. 

Fantasy Sparks: The first of many

Hello football audience. We are the Fantasy Sparks blog where we talk about football, and fantasy football. We’re just two guys in college who likes to talk about football and will get loud when we do.  I’m Brandon (I also have a last name) and the other guy is John Edwards (not the senator). Basically we’re just here to talk about football in an unbiased and friendly environment. We don’t consider ourselves to be experts (well John might) but considering the experts we see on TV I think we’ll be okay.

A little bit about us. I am a big time Kansas City Chiefs fan (I know, don’t rub it in) and I do believe in Alex Smith…. And that’s all you probably want to know other than my name. John on the other hand is a Carolina Panthers fan who doesn't like Tom Brady and the Patriots because they beat them in Super Bowl XXXVIII (Tom’s alright in my book).

What to expect from us. Considering it’s still May, and football news is incredibly slow, what we want to do is offer you guys fantasy advice, give our opinions on players, and even offer predictions for the upcoming season. And as we get further into posting it will become clear that John and I don’t always agree so expect to see some post where we debate on various football related topics. John and I will alternate posts to keep everything balanced, unbiased, and relatively fair. And we would always love to hear feedback from you and what you think, so be sure to leave a comment saying that you agree, disagree, or just think we are total tool bags and why you think that.

That pretty much sums up what you’ll see from us. Hopefully something I said interested you and will bring you back. Until next time.