Fantasy Fallout: The Aaron Hernandez Story

Aaron Hernandez, the now ex- Patriot tight end, has finally been arrested for “orchestrating,” the murder of Odin Lloyd. It’s quite likely he has played his last down in the NFL, and the Patriots have already gone and released him. SO what does this mean for the rest of the Patriots roster? Let’s take a look.

Hernandez was responsible for 51 catches, 483 yards, and 5 TDs in just 10 games last season, and has long been established as one of the top tight ends in football. Now he’s gone, along with Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Danny Woodhead, 4 of quarterback Tom Brady’s top 5 weapons. That leaves 283 catches, 3194 yards, and 18 touchdowns left for grabs. To fill that void, we have Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and running back Shane Vereen.

Now this isn’t an analysis of the New England Patriots. For that, go check out our earlier post. This is just an attempt to determine where the value that would have gone to Aaron Hernandez will go. So, to that-

We look straight at Shane Vereen. Taking over for the departed Danny Woodhead, he steps into the position of “third down safety valve,” a role which Hernandez and Woodhead essentially split last season. Vereen has shown himself capable of the role, chocking up 124 yards and 3 TDs on just 12 touches during the Divisional Round of last year’s playoffs. This was without Woodhead, and now with Hernandez and Woodhead out, he should see his touches increase. He already has the confidence of Tom Brady, calling Vereen’s game a “growing- up moment.” Sounds almost paternal from the elder statesman on the team. We’re excited.

Danny Amendola may also be the big winner of this fallout. Often called “the poor man’s Wes Welker,” that’s exactly the role he’ll occupy in 2013. As Welker and Hernandez often split snaps in the slot, Amendola will now have all the attention there to himself. Of course, it’s hard to believe that Amendola could actually outperform  Welker, but he just might. His potential is that high, if he can stay healthy.

Some pundits have been saying that the Patriots might garner more touches to star RB Stevan Ridley. Though we’re a little skeptical of this, it is a possibility, with Ridley being the only familiar offensive weapon left to start the Patriots Opening Day. That said, Ridley has stone hands, and the Patriots quietly had the 2^nd most rushing attempts last season. It’s hard to imagine a team like the Patriots rushing more than they did last season, especially with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Tom Brady.

Aaron Dobson is an intriguing rookie, but his role with the team will most likely be only marginally affected by this transaction. Playing the “X” in the Patriots scheme, he will mostly be asked to run, to get open deep. Think Randy Moss before he retired, or the role Brandon Lloyd attempted to play last season. Not to say we’re sour on the young rookie; rather, we’re quite excited. He just has little reason to benefit from in this tragedy.

Minus another one of his best weapons, Brady’s value seems to be in free- fall. Recent polls show he has actually fallen behind rising rookie QB’s Cam Newton and Russell Wilson, making Brady the 6^th QB drafted in most drafts. While Brady could make chicken soup out of chicken, well, you know, we have to agree with that assessment. With Brady’s lost weapons, coupled with Belichick’s commitment to the run game, his value could take a nosedive this season. This might finally be the year Brady falls out of the top- 5.

As a last aside: a sleeper candidate for Hernandez’s production, Julian Edelman. Another possession receiver in the mold of Wes Welker and Danny Amendola, he has all the tools to succeed, he just hasn’t put them together yet. He’s also had trouble staying healthy. But he’s the best in- house option the Patriots have. As to those who project TE Jake Ballard to pick up Hernandez’s production, feel disappointment. 59% of Hernandez’s snaps came at the wide receiver position last season, while Ballard is a lumbering, in- line tight end. He might be a good fill- in for Rob Gronkowski while he sits for injury, but he won’t be able to handle the receiver position, something Belichick and the Patriots brass are smart enough to figure out.