Saturday, June 1, 2013

Fantasy Analysis: Carolina Panthers

Hello once again football fans! Today we take a look at one of my favorite teams; my very favorite, in fact, the Carolina Panthers! Simply put, this team is dominant, perhaps even the next Super Bowl champs! My wishful thinking aside, the Carolina Panthers feature a 7-9 team that failed to make any significant roster changes during the offseason, while the rest of the division got decisively better. Atlanta, the NFC Conference champion runner- ups, were already a great team, and upgraded their run game, turning over the aging Michael Turner for Rams stalwart Steven Jackson. The Saints returned their coach, Sean Payton, mastermind of their Super Bowl XLIV win. And the Buccaneers shored up their biggest weakness with perhaps the best player at his position, cornerback Darrelle Revis. But that is real football, and we’re here to talk fantasy. So what does this mean for your Panthers? Well, expect a lot of shootouts with the Saints and the Falcons, as both of their offenses became much stronger. Smith may struggle to produce when the Buccaneers come to town, but the rest of the offense should operate smoothly and Smith will be able to make up for those lost to games  during the rest of the season.
Cam Newton
It was a tale of two seasons for Newton. Through the first 8 weeks of the season, Newton through for 1701 yds, rushed for 310 yards, and scored 8 Tds, while turning the ball over on 11 occasions. Meanwhile, from Week 9 on, Newton threw for 2168 yds, rushed for 431,and posted a 19:4 TD:TO ratio. To put that in perspective, through the first 7 games, Newton averaged, per Yahoo stand scoring, 16.8 points per game. From Week 9 onwards, however, Newton rocketed up to 23.5 PPG, high enough to vault him into 4th place among quarterbacks yearly fantasy points. There is no denying Newton has talent. But after having two consecutive seasons of only putting up good fantasy numbers during one half of the season, Newton will have to prove that he can be dominant for a full season for fantasy owners to trust him. That said, Newton is still near the top of the second tier of quarterbacks, and should fall no further than the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts this season. 
Jonathon Stewart & DeAngelo Williams & Mike Tolbert
Stewart is an immensely talented back. He’s young, powerful, and expected to take over the role of Carolina’s feature back. Now where have we heard that before? Stewart has been promoted as the next great
Carolina back for a few years now, and yet he always splits time with Williams, hurting both backs value. Count me as a disbeliever. Williams has been talked about as a candidate for being cut for two seasons now, and this could be the year as Carolina’s offense comes under new management in coordinator Marc Shula. Shula has also expressed a desire for Stewart to be Carolina’s feature running back. That said, if Williams remains on the roster, he will undoubtedly have value as Carolina’s top scoring back for the past two years. However, that production may be more of a pest to Stewart owners than any real value to Williams, as any playing time Williams and fullback Mike Tolbert get will be carries away from Jonathon Stewart. Despite scoring 7 TDs last season, Tolbert is nothing more than the goal line back for a Carolina team that already has Cam Newton to score rushing touchdowns. He can be safely ignored in fantasy circles. As a final wrap, don’t expect any Carolina back to be more than your RB3.
Steve Smith & Brandon LaFell
If Newton is to take a step forward this year and gain full- season dominance, someone will have to be the beneficiary. Smith is the franchise cornerstone, and returns for his 13th season as one of the league premier deep threats despite his age. To wit, only Calvin Johnson has more receptions of 20+ yards than Smith over the past two years. Only touchdowns eluded Smith last year, but touchdowns are notoriously fickle for deep, speed receivers such as Smith. Draft Smith as a WR2 with confidence; he’s shown no signs of slowing down, and could be even better than he was last year if Newton takes the expected leap forward. LaFell has slowly increased his game over the past three seasons, topping out with 44 receptions for 677 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. However, while the Carolina brass has shown patience with him, waiting for him to grow into a solid No. 2 opposite Steve Smith, that has not fully materialized, and Carolina brought in Giants receiver Domenik Hixon to compete for pass- catching duties opposite Smith this year. We at Fantasy Sparks are confident in LaFell’s ability to hold off Hixon for the No. 2 receiver, but as the third option in the passing game, whether he will have enough fantasy opportunity to produce value depends on both his and Newton’s growth during the offseason. Consider him a WR5 with upside.
Greg Olsen
Olsen graded out as fantasy’s 6th best TE in 2012, catching 69 passes for 843 yards and 5 TDs. Unfortunately, Marc Shula, Carolina’s new offensive coordinator, wants to run the ball more in order to increase Cam Newton’s efficiency. Whether this translates into production for Olsen is unknown, but he’s never been a willing blocker, something that could get him in trouble with the new staff. That said, Olsen is still option No. 2 in Carolina’s receiving hierarchy, so while his production may decline a bit, he still should have solid fantasy value. Just don’t pay the full price for last year’s stats.
Graham Gano

In 6 games last season after being picked up by the Panthers, Gano kicked 9 of 11 field goals and 20 of 21 XP’s for a grand 47 fantasy points. While we expect Carolina’s offense to be improved in 2013, Gano’s lack of field goal accuracy makes him a risky bet for fantasy production in 2013. You can do better. 

No comments:

Post a Comment