Hello once again football fans! Today we take a look at one
of my favorite teams; my very favorite, in fact, the Carolina Panthers! Simply
put, this team is dominant, perhaps even the next Super Bowl champs! My wishful
thinking aside, the Carolina Panthers feature a 7-9 team that failed to make
any significant roster changes during the offseason, while the rest of the
division got decisively better. Atlanta, the NFC Conference champion runner-
ups, were already a great team, and upgraded their run game, turning over the
aging Michael Turner for Rams stalwart Steven Jackson. The Saints returned
their coach, Sean Payton, mastermind of their Super Bowl XLIV win. And the Buccaneers
shored up their biggest weakness with perhaps the best player at his position,
cornerback Darrelle Revis. But that is real football, and we’re here to talk
fantasy. So what does this mean for your Panthers? Well, expect a lot of
shootouts with the Saints and the Falcons, as both of their offenses became
much stronger. Smith may struggle to produce when the Buccaneers come to town,
but the rest of the offense should operate smoothly and Smith will be able to make
up for those lost to games during the
rest of the season.
Cam Newton
It was a tale of two seasons for Newton. Through the first 8
weeks of the season, Newton through for 1701 yds, rushed for 310 yards, and
scored 8 Tds, while turning the ball over on 11 occasions. Meanwhile, from Week
9 on, Newton threw for 2168 yds, rushed for 431,and posted a 19:4 TD:TO ratio.
To put that in perspective, through the first 7 games, Newton averaged, per
Yahoo stand scoring, 16.8 points per game. From Week 9 onwards, however, Newton
rocketed up to 23.5 PPG, high enough to vault him into 4th place
among quarterbacks yearly fantasy points. There is no denying Newton has
talent. But after having two consecutive seasons of only putting up good
fantasy numbers during one half of the season, Newton will have to prove that
he can be dominant for a full season for fantasy owners to trust him. That
said, Newton is still near the top of the second tier of quarterbacks, and
should fall no further than the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board in
fantasy drafts this season.
Jonathon Stewart & DeAngelo Williams & Mike Tolbert
Stewart is an immensely talented back. He’s young, powerful,
and expected to take over the role of Carolina’s feature back. Now where have
we heard that before? Stewart has been promoted as the next great
Carolina back for a few years now, and yet he always splits
time with Williams, hurting both backs value. Count me as a disbeliever. Williams
has been talked about as a candidate for being cut for two seasons now, and
this could be the year as Carolina’s offense comes under new management in
coordinator Marc Shula. Shula has also expressed a desire for Stewart to be
Carolina’s feature running back. That said, if Williams remains on the roster,
he will undoubtedly have value as Carolina’s top scoring back for the past two
years. However, that production may be more of a pest to Stewart owners than
any real value to Williams, as any playing time Williams and fullback Mike
Tolbert get will be carries away from Jonathon Stewart. Despite scoring 7 TDs
last season, Tolbert is nothing more than the goal line back for a Carolina
team that already has Cam Newton to score rushing touchdowns. He can be safely
ignored in fantasy circles. As a final wrap, don’t expect any Carolina back to
be more than your RB3.
Steve Smith & Brandon LaFell
If Newton is to take a step forward this year and gain full-
season dominance, someone will have to be the beneficiary. Smith is the
franchise cornerstone, and returns for his 13th season as one of the
league premier deep threats despite his age. To wit, only Calvin Johnson has
more receptions of 20+ yards than Smith over the past two years. Only
touchdowns eluded Smith last year, but touchdowns are notoriously fickle for
deep, speed receivers such as Smith. Draft Smith as a WR2 with confidence; he’s
shown no signs of slowing down, and could be even better than he was last year
if Newton takes the expected leap forward. LaFell has slowly increased his game
over the past three seasons, topping out with 44 receptions for 677 yards and 4
touchdowns last season. However, while the Carolina brass has shown patience
with him, waiting for him to grow into a solid No. 2 opposite Steve Smith, that
has not fully materialized, and Carolina brought in Giants receiver Domenik
Hixon to compete for pass- catching duties opposite Smith this year. We at
Fantasy Sparks are confident in LaFell’s ability to hold off Hixon for the No.
2 receiver, but as the third option in the passing game, whether he will have
enough fantasy opportunity to produce value depends on both his and Newton’s
growth during the offseason. Consider him a WR5 with upside.
Greg Olsen
Olsen graded out as fantasy’s 6th best TE in
2012, catching 69 passes for 843 yards and 5 TDs. Unfortunately, Marc Shula,
Carolina’s new offensive coordinator, wants to run the ball more in order to
increase Cam Newton’s efficiency. Whether this translates into production for
Olsen is unknown, but he’s never been a willing blocker, something that could
get him in trouble with the new staff. That said, Olsen is still option No. 2
in Carolina’s receiving hierarchy, so while his production may decline a bit,
he still should have solid fantasy value. Just don’t pay the full price for
last year’s stats.
Graham Gano
In 6 games last season after being picked up by the
Panthers, Gano kicked 9 of 11 field goals and 20 of 21 XP’s for a grand 47
fantasy points. While we expect Carolina’s offense to be improved in 2013,
Gano’s lack of field goal accuracy makes him a risky bet for fantasy production
in 2013. You can do better.
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