Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Fantasy Analysis: New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees
Brees has been a top- 6 fantasy QB ever since he landed in New Orleans back in 2006, and that should continue in 2013. Now reuniting with head coach and offensive guru Sean Payton, Brees is coming off a season in which he threw 5177 yards and 43 TDs, finishing atop the QB rankings, and Payton return can only mean bigger things for Brees. The Saints should also have to throw the ball a ton this year, as their defense has made no major improvements from a team that finished badly last season. Don’t sweat Payton’s remarks of going more to his ground game; this team is built to pass, pass, and pass some more. Draft Brees near the top of the QB scales, if he’s not the first quarterback selected.
Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles, and Pierre Thomas
Ingram has been a massive disappointment since been drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft, failing to top 4.0 YPC in either year he’s played. He’s been running with the second team during spring OTA’s, and while Payton won’t keep him there, it could be a signal to the young rusher that this is the year to prove himself. Sproles has been used as more of a receiver than rusher in Sean Payton’s offense, catching 86 passes back in 2011 and 75 last year. He’s good for 700+ yards and 5-7 TDs. Just keep your expectations low, and you’ll be rewarded. Thomas is the most intriguing of New Orleans trio of backs, finishing as fantasy’s No. 27 back before fading last year. Thomas has always produced when on the field- a 4.8 career YPC is testimony to that- but he’s never had more than 150 carries in a year. If he can get back to that 150 carry number, Thomas will be a solid fantasy value. If he hovers near 100, like he has the past two seasons, he may not be worth much.
Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Joe Morgan
Colston is maddeningly inconsistent- 5 of his 10 TDs last year came in 2 games- but his final numbers always look similar; about 1000-1100 yards with 8- 12 TDs. Sean Payton’s return won’t help Colston as much as it will everyone else, but we’re looking at a guy who puts up numbers year after year. He’s a low- end WR1 or preferably a high WR2.  Moore posted his first 1000 yard season last year, so some regression can be expected. That said, when Brees is hot, all of his receivers benefit, so Moore may not fall as far as some pundits call for. Morgan is a deep threat, in the mold of ex- Saint Robert Meachem. Payton has talked highly of him ever since he arrived in New Orleans, and should be a competent No.3. However, that doesn’t mean you need to draft him.
Jimmy Graham
Graham finished as last season’s No.1 TE, a role he should retain this season. A matchup nightmare, Graham can do everything, catch every pass in the book, short, intermediate, or deep. Graham had 99 catches, 1310 yards, and 11 TDs the last time he played under Payton, and he should be able to get back to those numbers as Payton retakes the reigns of the offense. He’s a second- round pick.

Garret Hartley

Hartley finished as fantasy No. 18 kicker last season, and with Payton now in charge of the high- powered Saints offense, he’s bound to improve upon that ranking. He’s solid kicker.  

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