Saturday, June 15, 2013

Fantasy Analysis: Buffalo Bills

Welcome back football fans yesterday John looked at the Vikings. And now it’s time for the Buffalo Bills, the only team that drafted a QB in the first round. The Bills have been underachieving for years now, but make no mistake there are some quality fantasy players to be found. With that in mind let’s begin.

EJ Manuel: EJ was the only QB drafted in the first round, which came as a surprise to most, including myself. It’s doubtful he’ll much have fantasy value in his rookie season; many considered him to be a raw talent that could use a year of learning. So unless new head coach Doug Marrone wants to start Kevin Kolb, it looks like EJ will be learning by way of trial by fire. Temper your expectations, take a flyer in the late rounds if you want but there are more surefire QBs out there.

CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson: For many seasons Spiller’s talents had been held back by incumbent starter Fred Jackson. But last season Spiller wasn’t having it and he exploded onto the scene with 1244 rushing yards on just 207 attempts. He also added 459 receiving yards. He combined for 8 total TDs on the ground and through the air. Unless the new regime loves Fred Jackson, look for Spiller take get many more touches. Look for him to go amongst the top RBs this year. On the other hand Fred Jackson’s value has all but evaporated due to Spiller’s emergence, except as a goal line, potentially. However should Spiller ever go down, Jackson is worth playing in his stead as he is still serviceable.

Steve Johnson, Scott Chandler, and T.J. Graham: Steve Johnson (I always want to call him Stevie for some reason) has been a 1000 yard receiver the past three seasons despite inconsistent QB play. I expect this trend to continue, but he’s still a number two receiver at best. Coming off a quiet but promising rookie campaign, T.J. Graham is currently the number two receiver on this team. While I expect improvement from him, with a rookie QB at the helm it’s likely his improvement won’t show up in the stat books. Leave him on the waiver wires. Now Scott Chandler was the second best receiver on the team, from the TE position. It’s not uncommon for a rookie QB to look for their safety valve early and often, and many times that is the TE. But even so after coming off ACL surgery he likely will miss the first few weeks, so I would stay away.

Rian Lindell: He only missed 3 FGs last year, but his longest was only at 50 yards. He’s not unreliable, but there are better options.


Well that’s it for the Bills. A lot rides on EJ. If he steps up in the same way previous rookie QBs have over the past two seasons then this analysis will be very different. At this point it’s all speculation, but that’s half the fun. Until next time, best wishes.

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