Thursday, July 4, 2013

Fantasy Analysis: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anyone else feeling the love! Happy Independence  Day readers, the birth of our nation is a beautiful thing. And so is the birth of a solid fantasy team. Doug Martin rose from rookie to top- fantasy performer, and Vincent Jackson resurrected his career in the Bay. All- in- all, it made for a solid fantasy offering. 
Josh Freeman
Freeman has been an enigma since arriving in the league back in 2009. He throws many, many interceptions (63 career), but also can be quite adept at getting the ball downfield, when he’s on. His sophomore year, when he posted a 25:6 TD:INT ratio with a 7.3 YPA, he was definitely on. His third year in the league, he regressed badly, throwing only 16 TD’s compared to 22 INT’s and a mediocre 6.5 YPA. Last year was a mix of both. He passed for the most yards (4065)and TD’s (27) in his career, and matched his career high with a 7.3 YPA, but also threw 17 interceptions. I think that’s a fair estimate of how his final numbers will look this season, which was good enough for 13th place among quarterbacks last year. As a final word, it is worth pointing out that Freeman threw a miserable 2:9 TD:INT ratio over his last 3 games, inflating his final interceptions numbers, and bringing Freeman’s overall value crashing down. While this question bears no answer for his poor performance, Freeman is unlikely to perform that badly again. Consider him a QB2 with middling upside until further notice.
Doug Martin
To the surprise of even his admirers, Martin finished 2nd in the running back ranks last season, behind only the legendary Adrian Peterson and his historical season. “Muscle Hamster” ran over the competition last season with his well- rounded game, rushing for 100 yards 5 times and catching 49 passes. Overall, he had 1454 rushing yards, 472 receiving yards (1926 total), and 12 total TDs. And remember, he did all that as a rookie. He has the league’s 3rd easiest schedule for running backs, to boot. Anyone bashing Martin for his 251- yard, 4- TD destruction of the Raiders in Week 9 is missing out on a top- tier talent. A second- year jump is quite possible, and perhaps probable.
Vincent Jackson& Mike Williams
The Bucs like to run their receivers deep off of the play- action, and it’s worked, as far as fantasy is concerned. Vincent Jackson posted a career best 72/1348/8 line in his first year in Tampa, finishing among the top- 10 receivers. He’s firmly planted in WR1 territory. Mike Williams came in the top 20 receivers, with a 63/996/9 line. He just missed 1000 yards, and his second go- round in the Greg Schiano offense could put him there. He’s in high WR3 territory.
Luke Stocker
Let’s not kid ourselves. Stocker probably won’t be the starting tight end for Tampa Bay come the start of the season. However, since he’s top dog on the roster right now, we’re forced to talk about him. As a backup, Stocker grabbed a grand 16 receptions for 165 yards and 1 touchdown, good for 49th place amongst tight ends. The starting tight end for Tampa Bay, the ageless Dallas Clark, finished 25th. Stocker’s not even on the radar outside of deep leagues.
Connor Barth

Barth is a pretty good kicker. He hit 28 of 33 field goals last year (84.8%), and kicked in all 39 of his XP’s. That was good for 11th place in the fantasy kicker rankings, and that’s about where he’ll place this season, too. He’s a low-end fantasy starter. 

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